Ted Williams is one of the greatest hitter to play baseball because he knew what pitches to swing at and which ones to let go. He knew his probability to hit a baseball depending on where the ball was when it crossed the plate. He knew his sweet spot and his cold zones. This is how you should approach every decision you make.
Know where you are most likely to succeed and where you are most likely to fail. Take the most swings in your sweet spot. Minimize your risk of failure by knowing yourself and knowing your strengths and weaknesses.